![]() Its latest wobbles have been triggered by the continued onslaught of rolling blackouts on an epic scale and data this past week that showed the economy contracted in Q4 2022 by 1.3% on a quarterly basis, a far bigger shrinkage than the 0.4% expected by the market. ![]() Over two months later, on Friday night, it was around 18.60 to the dollar, about 9% weaker in the year to date, and is flirting with a run to its record low of 19.03 to the dollar. On 31 December 2022, the rand was fetching around 17.02 to the dollar. That prop is now evaporating and, for the rand, there is often a lag time between this deterioration and its decline, which began in earnest at the start of this year. SA’s record current account surplus in 2021 and healthy trade surpluses and TOT ratios, which were largely a consequence of record prices for the commodities South Africa produces and exports, gave the rand a prop to stand on. Taken together, these trends are eroding a key base of support for the rand. “South Africa’s trade surplus narrowed from R249-billion in Q3 2022 to R12.2-billion in Q4 2022 as the value of merchandise imports increased while that of goods exports declined,” the SARB said. This means it’s still in the black: when more capital is flowing into a country than flowing out, the TOT is more than 100, and when it is less than 100, it means more capital is leaving.īut the trend is going the wrong way, as is the trade balance. ![]() South Africa’s terms of trade (TOT), a ratio between export and import prices, also deteriorated further over that period, falling to 104.6 from 110.6. Visit Daily Maverick’s home page for more news, analysis and investigations ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |